Latest Update in the SMM Steel Billet Market

SMM, Oct 14: The followings are a detailed breakdown of China metals production in September and forecast for October:

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["Reverse Invoicing" Topic Reignites Heated Discussions: What Are the Dynamics of Recycled Rod Plants?] Based on SMM's survey results, most enterprises in various regions generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude. If the "reverse invoicing" policy is fully implemented in 2025, the actual tax burden on recycled rod plants is expected to increase by at least 1.5%, up to approximately 1.9%. Enterprises found by the tax bureau to still be using "white slips" for accounting will be subject to a tax levy of 2% of their revenue. During the transition period, any handling method will pose significant pressure on recycled rod plants.

According to SMM statistics, China's production of ternary cathode materials in H1 2024 was 330,000 mt, up 13.8% YoY from 290,000 mt in H1 2023, with a capacity utilisation rate of around 40%.

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According to SMM data, from August 19 to August 23, the weekly average price of 1# copper cathode was 73,790 yuan/mt, up 1.97% WoW; the weekly average price of bare bright copper in east China was 68,020 yuan/mt, up 2.47% WoW; the weekly average price of baled copper cable scrap (Cu＞99.5%) was 68,220 yuan/mt, up 2.47% WoW.

Without noticing it, nearly half of 2024 has passed. Looking back at the lithium carbonate market since the beginning of the year has been tumultuous. Since the beginning of the year, the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has risen from 96,900 RMB/ton to a high of 113,000 RMB/ton, and then experienced a downward trend in recent days after nearly two months of market fluctuations.

[SMM Analysis: August Copper Cathode Rod Operating Rate Exceeds Expectations, Will the Positive Trend Continue in September, the Traditional Peak Season?] According to the SMM survey, the operating rate of copper cathode rod producers was 74.62% in August, up 4.10% MoM and 4.16% YoY, exceeding the expected value by 1.90%. The operating rate for large enterprises was 82.64%, for medium-sized enterprises 62.08%, and for small enterprises 62.39%. (Surveyed enterprises: 61, capacity: 13.877 million mt)